NUIX HY Results (30-Aug-2021) : Expectations & Reality

NUIX downgrade trend (Figures in $ million)

	Timeline	Revenue	Annual Contract Value	EBIDTA
1	December 2020	$193.5	$199.6	$63.6
2	April 2021	$180 - $185	$168 - $177	$64.6 - $66.6
3	May 2021	$173 - $182	$165 - $172	$64.6 - $66.6
4	Correction	- (6 to 10)%	- (14 to 17)%	+ (1.5 to 4.5)%

Points to note:
1) Annual Contract Value: It is dynamic and keeps changing. It is just a key metric, not a deciding factor.
MQG did not sign in time for FY2020-21 due to it's precarious position. I expect the ACV to be much higher than expected for period ending Dec 2021.

2) Revenue: Downgrade is max. 10% and the stock price has been hammered ~75%.
Clearly shows it is not about the revenue, it's about distrust in management and rightly so.

3) EBIDTA: It is projected to increase by up to 4.5%. However, AUD/USD has fallen from 77c to 72c approx. 9% since 1st June, so EBIDTA is expected to be much better than projected as major revenue stream is from US.