Nuix valuation from their competitor Cellebrite, page-3

Well done Wenchao on presenting some comparative research.

My comment:
a) We do not have enough historical data to draw comparisons (so we can't use the past to extrapolate into the future)
b) I look at absolute valuations not relative valuations.

c) I thought management previously said that the June Qtr is when they have the highest business qtr. Highest qtr for new wins. Well we are into June now and what have we heard? So I question revenue growth.

d) I question EBITDA to revenue margin analysis, because it is over too short a time frame, and again I don't have a long period of historical data to confirm sustainable margin. Short term margin can be played around with (eg by cutting employee costs, but longer term this will show up through impaired revenue growth)

e) Enterprise to revenue: hasn't revenue forecasts been cut.


All I know from the Dec Half Year Report:
a) Revenue decreasing at $85m (half Year)
b) EBITDA underlying is basically stagnant (half year on half year) at $30m odd
c) Half Year underlying net profit going backwards at $9.5m

Given the market cap of NXL is still around $850m

So given the above compared to market cap, and given all the other problems with NXL I see no need to initiate a position.