Upstream supplierFurther downstream, Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:...

Upstream supplier

Further downstream, Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE: SBSW; JSE: SSW) CEO Neal Froneman is bullish on the rapidly strengthening fundamentals for the suite of platinum-group metals (PGMs) it produces in South Africa and the US.

In the short to medium term, the company sees robust demand for platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium and ruthenium (5E) plus gold from traditional sectors such as conventional auto applications. “Robust autocatalysts fundamentals support PGM demand over the next decade,” said Froneman.

According to Sibanye, chain disruptions mean internal combustion engine-driven auto sales will continue to increase long-term. “Demand from ICE vehicles remain robust,” he said, noting that tightening emissions legislation across the world translates to increasing PGM loadings in catalytic converters, while demand from fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) in the heavy-duty vehicle segment is accelerating.

In the longer term, Sibanye is positioning its portfolio underpinned by the emerging hydrogen economy.

Platinum is the key beneficiary, being an effective catalyst for PEM electrolyzers and fuel cells. Iridium is necessary for producing green hydrogen through PEM electrolyzers using renewable energy. Ruthenium will also see an uptick in demand for its role in PEM electrolyzers, together with platinum.

“PGMs’ unique chemical and physical properties make substitution extremely difficult,” said Froneman.

He laid out a strong investment case for PGMs during the transition to electric vehicles while the adoption of battery EVs and FCEVs grow.

In the light vehicle market segment, BEVs are expected to achieve 12% market penetration by 2025 and 22% by 2030. In contrast, FCEVs are expected to reach a market penetration of 1% by 2030.

However, on the heavy vehicle segment, both BEVs and FCEVs are each expected to account for 7% of the market by 2030.

Meanwhile, another critical Sibanye-Stillwater product, iridium, is set to see demand explode from 2030 onwards. “PGM-containing PEM electrolyzers represent about 70% of demand from pipeline projects to 2040,” he said.

Froneman noted thrifting would be a key element to help with hydrogen technology’s cost reduction and sustainability. “We see an opportunity for the industry to align iridium demand with supply through thrifting, substitution and innovative recycling to get the hydrogen economy going,” he said.

Mining for the hydrogen economy

Meanwhile, the 5E basket of PGMs Sibanye produces becomes increasingly important as the transition to the green economy gathers pace. According to company data, BEVs are expected to grow at 18% CAGR and FCEVs at 29% CAGR through 2030.

“The increasing importance of the hydrogen economy in the next decade is going to underpin platinum demand and the minor metals iridium and ruthenium in the demand mix,” Froneman said.

Froneman said Sibanye expects to be a significant contributor of the PGMs the emerging hydrogen economy needs by 2030 by producing, either through mining or recycling, 17% of the platinum, 21% of ruthenium and 19% of the iridium needs of the green hydrogen industry.

https://www.mining.com/more-than-2-trillion-investment-needed-to-meet-iea-hydrogen-targets/