Subs,
Speaking of ORE, they put out their quarterly report this morning. The interesting bit for me was this extract re their assessment of the market outlook:
"Orocobre views current conditions as a short-term correction following three to four years of high growth that resulted in market prices reaching levels two to three times (or more) greater than the historical average. Long term fundamentals remain strong and are underpinned by battery manufacturer’s plans with 68 lithium ion mega-factories currently in the pipeline delivering 1,450 GWh capacity and a potential 22 million EV’s by 2028 (Benchmark Minerals). Furthermore, strong growth potential was exhibited by the energy storage sector with total global energy storage additions more than doubling during 2018 to 9 GWh and is forecast to grow ~80% in 2019 (Bloomberg New Energy Finance). Accordingly, Orocobre maintains long-term demand forecasts in line with the consensus of incumbent producers in the range of 18% to 20% CAGR between 2018 and 2025."
Essentially, the shorters will need to reconcile the fact that supply will not meet demand at some point in the near future. And this "short-term" situation will need to be rectified by closing out short positions. It will likely result in a rapid price shock as the shorts rush to close out their positions.
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