On another thread I previously threw out some "back of the envelope" numbers regarding the proposed truck + barge operation out of Bungaroo.
I'm really surprised so little value has been attributed to the potential here, and I'm hoping a few forum members will chip in their 2c worth regarding these figures:
Fosters (God bless them) have suggested capex of $400 mill to set up a 5Mt p/a truck + barge operation out of Bungaroo.
Let's assume IOH can raise the cash via debt, I think with over $100 mill in the bank it should be achievable. If FMG take up the Iron Valley option the finance is assured IMHO.
Let's talk EBITDA: If IOH can sell the product for around $100 p/t we are talking about half a billion dollars earnings p/a. And the current market cap is around $160 mill? Once IOH are producing and generating income, at what P/E do you expect they might trade?
Let's talk profit: Using a very rough opex of $50 p/t, if IOH can secure a deal to sell for around $100 p/t it's $250 million p/a profit. The debt from capex could easily be repaid within two years, and the operation capacity could be slowly ramped up to generate more cashflow although I note this would eventually lead to more capex as they plan to initially mine the dry product & I'm not sure how many Mt of dry product are easily removed before they hit the wet stuff.
Surely holders must have some thoughts on the potential of this project to completely transform IOH?
IOH Price at posting:
99.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
