Number of HX, Profit, Earnings Ratio and Risk

Let's say for instance that

FBR's goal is to have 3000 HX machines

Each machine can produce $1m per annum profit

Earning to Share Price Ratio of 10x as @T.E.P. suggests

This would equate to a market capitalisation of $30b!!!

and then let's say that FBR has a 5% chance of achieving this. (which I consider low), so if you could find 100 companies with the same numbers, treated them as a bet, 1 out of 20 bets would pay. Across all 20 you would break even.

But as we don't know which ones will be the winners, we could calculate the market capitalisation inclusive of the risk as $30b * 0.05 = $1.5b. This is significantly higher than the currrent market capitalisation of $120m.

If calculating this to a share price, I would suggest allow for full dilution for performance shares and then some more for CR.

Feel free to change the numbers and perform the calculations. But remember that if you say the goal would be 100 machines at $500k profit per year, then the chance of success would be higher. Lets say this is 30%.

Therefore 1000 * $500k * 10 * 0.3 = $150m market capitalisation.

There would be other discounts applied to the number, such as a discount for the time taken to achieve it, loan repayments taken out etc.

The numbers are still very big however.

@hokey 5771 There are no numbers where I can get to Anks share prices

@Ankhenaten2 Sorry

@yousef I'm interested to see what you think on the numbers/calculations

@Troopy I'm pretty certain you will say 0%.

I'm also interested in everyones thoughts on what they perceive the numbers of machines, profits, ratios and Risk is.