Numbers:Whilst the share price is a very important number, I...

Numbers:

Whilst the share price is a very important number, I focus on different numbers to work out where the share price will be in the future.

As of Dec 31, 2011:

BLUE RIDGE DOME = 1,660 acres = current 2P Reserves of 72.8 Million barrels (but judging by the gusher they just drilled (announced Feb 23) in the relatively untested NE section of Blue Ridge, further significant reserve upgrades can be expected for Blue Ridge).

BOLING DOME = 4,439 acres (similar geology but nearly 3 times more acreage than Blue Ridge). Drilling has commenced, the first well was a success and the maiden reserve study for Boling Dome is expected within the next few months.

NASH DOME = 2,740 acres (similar geology but 1.5 times more acreage than Blue Ridge). Drilling has commenced, the first well was a success and the maiden reserve study for Nash Dome is also expected within the next few months.

EDWARDS REEF: 489 acres.

I would think that a total 2P Reserve target of around 200 Million barrels by the end of this year (with more to prove up in 2013) is a realistic target.

The wildcat drills they are planning this year could be the icing on the cake.

We will soon find out how many BOPD they are at but with their recent increase in drill rigs and the apparent flow of the last few successful wells, I would say a target of 2,000 BOPD by end of June is a realistic target.

This company has proven that they can drill quickly with a very high success rate of about 90%. The crude on their leases is proven high quality, currently earning them a premium of more than $10 per barrel.

They are already profitable and increasing profits at an impressive rate. They will continue to increase acreage on existing leases and acquire new leases in the area.

Where will the share price be in 6 months time and beyond? I have my own targets but I see no merit in posting them here. You can make up your own mind.

Tea Leaves:

For those who prefer to read tea leaves than look at the fundamentals, you don't leave empty-handed either!

The stock is clearly still in an up-trend and a rather bullish-looking pennant is forming on the chart with diminishing volume (see below) as the share price catches it's breath. As lower highs and higher lows converge, you would expect to see a breakout from the pennant pattern (in either direction) in the coming days, usually accompanied by increased volume. It may take a few more days to play out. 'If' it breaks out to the upside, what would the next target be? Assuming the up-trend continues, chartists would probably measure an upside target by looking at the difference between the start point of the last run (50 cents - measured from the high of the lowest day in the "V" bottom at 45.5 cents) to the highest high of the pennant (87 cents). This is a move of 37 cents.

The next target would then be calculated as this move plus the value at the point of breakout (let's say 85 cents). Next target = 85 cents + 37 cents = $1.22.

I can understand some people looking over their shoulder at this point after such an impressive run. Many have been surprised at the recent strength of the share price... but not as surprised as I was to see it sit at 20 cents for so long. As pointed out by another poster, this is not one of those stocks that rip up on the great white hope of one 'make or break' well (who remembers GDN?). This is a different kettle of fish - a company that should continue to return value to shareholders, relatively quickly and over a long period of time... and I expect the share price to reflect that over time. It is a great company, in the right game at the right time... much like Paladin was in the mid 2000's. OK, that might be a long bow to draw at this stage, but the point is, MAD is not a flash in the pan.

Of course, this is all just in my honest, heartfelt and humble opinion (IMHHHO)