Just to show sense of humour, Sharks numbers are the Blue corner...

Just to show sense of humour, Sharks numbers are the Blue corner and Aussie's numbers are the red corner.

This isn't "absolute correctness", its about demonstrating the effect of the hyperbolic decline curve that is in effect throughout the Bakken. IMO if you don't understand how this works you'll be in for a surprise.

Remember I am not bearish on SSN - I just believe the numbers will stack up differently (they are "way off" from each other)

1. Sharks numbers per his post based on 500 bopd IP and declining as stated with $50 profit.

2. Aussie's numbers per Hyperbolic decline curve using relative Bakken reference curve. Aussie also takes into consideration the WI% for his gross revenue (@66.67%) as expect FPEC to backin.

3. Aussie provides NPV for first 2 years of production using 2.5% qtrly disc rate for 8 qtrs.

4. Keep in mind that the 66% WI reduces SSN portion of well cost to around $4.5M

5. Its a 2 yr payback @500 bopd, less if at 600 bopd on NPV basis.

6. Aussie uses WTI less Bakken discount ($10) less royalties (20%) adjusted to WI (66%) less LOE ($6) and a modest $1 for Gen&Admin, making Net about $35


There is not enough space to detail cumulative production on a hyperbolic decline computation! If you don't believe me you'll have to calculate it yourself. I trust my numbers are correct on the parameters chosen.


As posted earlier, one of us will be "way off".

Hurry up with completing those wells, getting a IP bopd (NOT COUNTING ANY GAS - probably flared off anyway until infrastructure catches up) and then cumulative 30/9 production numbers.

GLTA