numbers game

A bit of analysis reveals the following. Whether it reveals anything of note is debatable.

Of the registered 17 nominated Orbis funds holding POH shares, 8 remain untouched in the current sell down of the notified 33 million sold to March 13th.
The sold down funds have another 46 million shares in them.
Assuming since 13th March another 7-10 million have been sold by Orbis (someone can confirm or refute through verifying ITG selling), leaving another 36-40 million shares in the sold down funds.

The questions remain to be seen:
1. will Orbis stop at the 40 million allocated at the cash raise for a $3.5-$4m profit?
2. will they keep selling these funds down to 0, leaving them with a holding of 97 million shares?
3. Will the next notice reveal changes in untouched funds ?

In my opinion it is solely opportunist selling. There is definitely no negative news that they would be aware of that others are not, particularly following the strong buying following the roadshows in Asia and NZ.

I would say that POH have a lot of follow up work to do in regards to new interest for HNW following the recent roadshows.

My theory is that at this point in time the sellers are finite and the buyers are growing and unlimited.

In regards to Oscar's 'crunching' theory, however that works, it must be happening. Take away up to 40 million shares from orbis, there still is another 80 million sold since Jan 1, without any other change notices.
I'm not sure why this 'crunching happens, or when it stops?

NB - I did verify today that the multi-dosing component has not commenced.
Assuming that phase III is due to start in 3rd qrt, you would expect it to start in the 2nd qrt. I imagine this is due to them wanting to get the patch to a point where it is at it's optimum, so there will be no further hurdles to the finish line.