numbers not bad at all

Just a quick look at quarterly numbers and some rough forcasts for ROC:

Q2 sales volume barrels 189,554 barrels
Q2 revenue $16,752,000
Av price achieved per barrel $88.38

Q3 barrel prod per day 14,200
days per qtr 91.25 [ha ha quarter day]

Total barrels forcast Q3 1,295,750
Av price achieved Q2 $88.38
Forcast rev Q3 $114,513,035

Annualised $458,052,143.45

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Based on Q2 numbers applied to Q3 forcast production ROC have annualised revenues of about $ 460m. I think this a pretty good number - Av price acheived may go down - but there Av prodcution per day will lift.

Hard to say what the report earnings will be - but there are some high numbers in exploration and development, but this should be offset by additional reserves from Beibu of about 16m barrels [net ROC] capitilised say at AUD 20 a barrel in situ [ =320,000,000]. Neatly offsets exploration and development.

Looking annualised numbers I guess that 450m in rev will deliver 120m in profit [ anyone got a better idea ???]. This gives EPS of about 60c. If you apply a muliple of 10 [not unreasonable given growth prospects and projects in pipeline] you have a target of $ 6.00.

This is based on fundamentals. Now through in a few elephants in Angola, and other activities in Africa you might add a $1.

However you cut - holders are in good ride

cheers