numbers questions from a newbie, page-3

Hi Ned,

In relation to the $20m prepayment i believe it is against future shipments.

I have copied an old post of mine with Tonys response:

Hi Tony,

I am not sure if it is possible but can you give some guidance around the timing for payment of the $20m for the off take agreement.

I am aware of the presentation released on the 27/9 and advice that remnant ore from stage 3 can be shipped from November. Is this appearing likely and is this shipment linked to the abovementioned off take agreement?

Appreciate if no guidance can be given due to market sensitivity and if this is the case is there any plan in the near future to update the market around this?

Cheers

Tonys Response:

Hi mcbombers,

The $20m should come in in about 10 days. They are working on issuing the Letters of Credit now, then there is a bank process then the money comes into our account.

No the November shipment isnt linked to either the $20m or the 1mt off-take agreement. It is the first of the pre-sale shipments. I have no reason to change the advice to the market that our first shipment will be in November.

I'll keep the market advised as things are ticked off.

Cheers, Tony.
__________

As stated i think the whole key is linked to one the operating costs per tonne of the O/I being sold but even more importantly the deep sea costs per tonnes. I may be wrong but i believe i saw a figure of $57 p/t is the current estimate (dont rely on this) only going from memory. This is the key as it is an unknown and if it was to blow out drastically then we would possibly be on thin ice as Cockatoo would only have a few years in it and when a likely start-up cost of $600m is needed for Irvine coupled with enviro clean up at Cockatoo it would seem unlikely Irvine would happen based on current market conditions and finance options.

I think we were hoping for a magic bullet for the SP with the commencement of explorer to producer but given the cost estimates on the PFS were out by 50% all will be sitting back to see what the final estimate extracting the deep sea wall O/I will be. If it is in line with expectations then this share is a steal and the SP should rocket as PLV would be feasible on Cockatoo alone for a long time to come. If it is the other way then i guess it would be the opposite depending on the markets.

Management and Tony have proven themselves to be straight shooters and i have no doubt they will do everything they can to make PLV a success. I think the key moving forward is actual costs meeting cost estimates which is stating the obvious i guess.