From the Port Phillip publishing article.
Numbers 250Mill to 2500 mill barrels - Use intervals of 50Mill = 46 in set
Chance of recovery 15% to 40% - Use intervals of 1% = 26 in set
Total possible combinations 1196. Using a cut off >= 200 mill of recoverable to be commercial there are 293 combinations < 200 mill which equates to a 24.5% chance on no commercial success on a pick a combination out the hat basis. The chance of commercial success is 75.5%.
The median is 27.5% chance at 1375 mill barrels = 378 mill barrels
The maximum is 40% at 2500 mill barrels = 1000 mill barrels
Assuming $10 barrel and no other attributed share value and 2500 mill shares and 15% interest FAR is worth about 23 cents per share.
The maximum value is 60 cents per share.
Numer Trivia Re Port Philip
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