Hi 264,
After a lot more time spent pondering and discussing with others, I continue to grapple with, what is, at least for me, a very pivotal event in my life (again, as I keep harping on... everyone on these threads have different backgrounds, life experiences and risk tolerance, so of course there is a very broad mix of views being shared regarding the merger), due partly to the size of my investment and the length of time I have been holding (second longest holding, after Computershare, but... that has just hit 30 years..). Suffice to say, Dalgaranga is like my 3rd child!Though I suppose unlike my other children, it's paying me back!
Anyway, I can understand where you are coming from, but... firstly, SL and MZ made it clear in the presentation that talks/discussions have been ongoing for many months. You do know that RMS have basically held 1/5 of the company for almost 8 months. Upon reflection, that is an incredibly long time for a predator to wait patiently before moving in. This whole deal is distinctly different from every other transaction RMS has made in it's past. Upon even more reflection, when I first read through RMS new mine plan released on the 11th of March, I critiqued it because it basically went against the grain, of what RMS has been incredibly good at, bringing forward ounces into mine plans. Yet... with SPR now potentially in the mix, it makes so much more sense, because, whilst it does grate on me a little (even if it is actually my own failings that most annoy me), that getting Dalgaranga back into production in a very short period of time, was not feasible, IF................... one can be objective and think about the realities (realistic timeframes) of bringing a newly discovered deposit into production, that is... different to the original deposit that the almost new Mill was built for. There is every likelyhood that NN ore is going to be processed before year's end at Mt Magnet, that is faster than anything SPR could do. Simple as that. Let alone what RMS and it's contractors might be able to mine in CY26.
If one wants to develop a Tier 1 asset (and I strongly believe it will become a Tier 1, with more exploration success required), there is a myriad of factors that need to dealt with (and done to the highest standard, which means... no shortcuts). Met work showed NN/PP is good. But... grind size is a key factor to make this asset Tier 1, so... plant needs to be modified (paste plants don't get built in a day either!, there is obviously more than this, but I am trying to ensure I get at least a little sleep tonight). This is very different to simply refurbing an old plant, that is going to process the exact same dirt/deposit it did 5-20 years ago. One only has to look at what WGX, CMM and others are doing for upgrading their plants (basically just increasing throughput). It takes money, but... time is the biggest factor and inhibitor. Upgrade studies, procuring the required infrastructure, long order times etc.
As I have already stated, my strong preference was, if SPR became a target (which 99% of the known universe knew after June 27 2024), I wanted as much script as possible from another ASX listed producer, because, that is what suits my investment style (long holds, big positions). This enables me to continue to hold some of the best dirt in W.A, with the bonus of already having discovered 2 incredibly high grade U/G deposits. With.... a new twist, all of RMS assets, that.... I think I have been pretty vocal on the RMS threads over the years, has starved its Geo team (or.. for whatever reason, not spent $$ on actual exploration drilling) which has seen RMS basically only drill infill and extensional holes across it's assets. There is some sense to it, because they just want to add near term ounces to the mine plan, but.. it has almost meant, that Mt Magnet in particular, has become underexplored, and who better to take the helm of exploration, than SL..... I mean... Penny has basically had 2 drill holes in all the years RMS have held it... test outside of the current MRE! two....... I mean.... what the heck? I know SL will quickly rectify that.
I will put myself out on a limb and state that as I understand it, nothing at SPR is being held back. The reserves are still coming. The drilling and drill results are ongoing, though.... announcements may be less frequent unless something truly material occurs (normal rules always apply).
I know I also pondered why RMS waited until right now... perhaps another major factor is also related to the future mining schedule of Never Never. The decline will be at the ore in June... why stop there.... Plus... if the drilling has more success, perhaps, as a recent broker report hypothesized, a dual decline could be viable to mine Pepper/Freak (basically mine on the left and right of the deposits), to enable a lot more tonnage. This excludes any other declines to access West Winds/FP/Sly fox. A key feature of the merged entity, will hinge on the two plants operating seamlessly to maximising the right mix of ore and processing throughput. Of course, this does indeed fill the 'gap' that RMS has in FY27, though I am very confident FY26 will see a major uplift in ounces and reduction in AISC with Never Never building steam (the planned AISC was already low at $1650 AUD...
I will touch on the share price you mention. I guess if I can be blunt... so what? Telsa is down 45% from it's highs.... if it receives a T/O, would no-one accept purely because the price might not be above the all time high? I don't have an issue with the seemingly lower share price movements... it's only been a week since the announcement. As others have pointed out, if RMS starts to track higher... the offer price rises too.
Anyway, great post @Indecisive - very succinct and basically sums up my evolving view on the deal and how it best fits my own interests (no advice being given!).
I know some view a no vote as being the best option, however upon reflection, I prefer to see the deal move ahead as quickly as possible, with no real benefit that I can see from slowing the process, unless another bidder appears and... on balance, I don't see it happening from a local entity, though offshore.. who knows.
In some ways, having the two companies tethered, so to speak, provides an interesting proposition, with... potential exploration success at Dalgaranga being a price driver, just like RMS cash generation (I expect we will get a production update in about 10 days time and.... all things being equal, it will be a good one.
Good post btw @Joelstar - it has been surprising to see how negative some have become when... it was until impossible to be underwater on the current deal (unless you held before the 20:1 consolidation, like me, and a few others!). Makes me wonder what some would say over on the OBM threads, if they got a deal offered (I doubt it), would investors be grumpy at Luke C? hmm... Is there ever going to be a number that would make everyone happy??
I for one, cannot wait to see what, arguably two of the best operators on the ASX can do with this mix of assets (MZ and SL). Not often do you get two MDs that complement each other. So... yeah, I am off the fence and sort of looking towards what the deal will bring and after reading through the last 5 years of RMSs quarterly's again, there are so many targets and prospects that deserve to be drilled... well.. I am glad I will finally get closure on many of them being tested under SL.
Good luck to all holders.
Finally... I cannot help myself.... remember the Spartans did finally fall in battle... which led to the rise of a new Empire.
Hi 264,After a lot more time spent pondering and discussing with...
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