NVA Chart, page-1957

I agree with all of your points, it can easily ride the bands lower for a while, it isn't a great chart. I'll just add the caveat that If it turns out to be a 4th wave triangle (expanding), then it can only go down to 28c max, or that pattern is invalid. I don't know what will play out, that's why i find it interesting.
A few more days on / below the band and the trend line for a capitulation / throw over is fine IMO. Anything more than that, then the second chart i posted above is the next most likely candidate with a bullish slant.
The bearish slant is we just went through an ABC correction and the larger down trend will continue. Here's hoping for a 5 wave pattern in a positive direction.