NVA 2.63% 19.5¢ nova minerals limited

NVA fair value target $0.59 to $0.83 for 5 Moz to 7 Moz, page-63

  1. 11,249 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 29638
    Have a look at this:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/48194636/single

    This estimate has been aggressively tuned with assumptions to be conservative:
    • Gold price at USD $1,800 (instead of $1,900)
    • AISC at a 20% premium to AISC for Victoria Gold (which has a similar mineralisation style)
    • 7% premium to the exchange rate
    • 40% dilution of fully-diluted share issue to achieve production
    • CAPEX based on capital intensity for Victoria Gold
    • Adjustment for 2% net smelter royalty to JV partner
    This above is a valuation for a starter pit.

    It doesn't factor in the expansion potential in NVA. Can envisage that NVA could double production within 5 years of achieving cashflow due to the scale of their asset / resources.

    In a gold bull market, we could easily see gold prices USD $2,500+ in production. That would be a massive increase in margin. On these numbers about a 60% to 70% increase in gross margin.
    Last edited by wombat777: 20/10/20
 
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