Hello Jopie,
Agree with your sentiment. Following the MRE, I was disappointed & stunned by the miss, and learned very quickly that every study they do is independent. Different geologists, analysts, risk appetite = different answer. I always thought each milestone would build upon another, but alas, not the case.
My takeaway was that I need to perform, as much as possible, my own due dilligence modelling & luckily I know how to knock together a basic DCF. Pleasingly, I saw the numbers react positively (on balance) to a change in the grade. Even though the scale of RPM in the recent MRE was a miss, the M&I portion we do have is still significant for capital payback & IRR. This is extremely positive (one of my worries with the first SS was the IRR, 20% isn't great). On this basis, provided the MRE feeds the study as we expect (high grade gold extracted first, lower grade thereafter), I think the metrics will look pretty decent. So I am resting easier.
But, my eyes are wide open for sure, no more surprises!
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