Of the set above, if we take the more realistic figure of AUD $89 per ounce for inferred (which is on 81% ownership basis for NTM), we can adjust this figure to $110 per ounce on a 100% ownership basis. Then adjusting back to NVA's 85% ownership we get $93 per ounce.
Here's a ready-reckoner for what NVA should be worth with an inferred resource.
General expectations here are that with the inferred resource upgrade due soon we will see a resource upgrade somewhere in the 3-4 Moz range. My own expectation is just over 4 Moz.
Keep in mind that they were saying in presentations a target of 5 Moz to 7 Moz so they might be trying to hit 5 Moz as a bottom-end figure. Not inconceivable given depth of drilling and they seem to have achieved nice grades.
I'll adjust the per ounce metric once NVA move towards indicated status and that is now planned for by the end of this year.
Ultimately the onus is on management to improve their education of investors. ASX investors have been having a lot of trouble understanding the grade, so NVA need to educate on the economics and on the likely low ASIC and hence very attractive gross margins. That's best shown with comparisons with peers.
From the activity here on the forum awareness seems to be improving.
My own thoughts are a $0.17 to $0.28 valuation/target for the next month. DYOR. Not advice.
NVA Price at posting:
4.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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