Huge letdown. I was very, very surprised. I wasn't aware that NVT had so many students from the subcontinent where compliance issues are so serious. Nor did reading previous NVT reports lead me to expect an impact from Macquarie so early in the domestic market. Previous statements from NVT indicated the Macquarie impact would be in H2 2016. Having said that, other markets (China, SE Asia etc) must be doing very, very well to have closed the gap and kept numbers steady. Overall I have more mixed feelings about NVT following this announcement. The Northern Hemisphere figures were great (despite the UK) and I'd been hoping for robust growth in the Australian and Singapore operations. Not to be. While the Macquarie impacts expected in H2 2016 have already nominally been priced in by the market, I suspect there will be a bit of a shock when it actually occurs, hitting both EFSTUs and EBITDA. I'd been hoping for greater growth in other parts of the business to offset this. Not to be. What I can't understand is that Austrade figures suggest global growth in the Higher Education Diploma segment where Navitas' UP numbers are. How NVT managed to underperform is something I will take a look at. I fully understand and support Navitas' caution about sub continent markets (where too many students just disappear after arrival) but am still very disappointed they couldn't achieve healthy growth in a strong market.
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