Bit of a longer post, but hopefully worthwhile for readers for a different perspective..
It’s been interesting to see NVX stuck for a while, and in fact down quite a bit since the CR. As a LTH, and investing more via FA, thought I’d put some math to our long term horizons. To put it mildly, I’m seeing MULTI-bag potential.
Sometimes I like to reflect back on this when I see the SP pull back for too many days in a row!
The exercise was quite simple. I have basic P&Ls by year to help understand how the business trajectory looks over time (particularly important I find for a company pre-revenue / profit with huge blue sky market potential like NVX.. and therefore the P&L leverage is high and often not YET well understood by market). However this time I simply developed some basic scenarios based on anode tonnages that NVX have guided for in 2025 & 2030 (40k & 150k respectively), information about the projected market pricing & COGS (from market guidance & previous NVX info). The scenarios then expand to incorporate other business lines (DPMG cathode, electrolyte, other revs like Emera or full battery service) and geographic expansion (to EU).. To keep it simple they are all based off a ratio to the base anode business. Perhaps I got carried away but I also put in a full bull case, or perhaps more aptly “Complete Bull”.
There are a few other assumptions in there too (OPEX rates, DOE loan to fund expand, PE ratio for valuation etc etc).. all marked yellow.
Here's how the math works out… scenarios across the top, P&L / valuation inputs down the side.
So based on the Anode onlybusiness on 2025 projections, should be a 5 bagger. What is the confidence levels? ... based on projected EV growth, graphite demand, NVX tech lead & first mover advantage & currently the ONLY supplier in North America, I would be shocked if they don’t come very close to these numbers, at the least. Acceleration and expansion into other areas (DPMG etc) a little more “risky”, depending on your confidence in the tech & management. I have been watching this space & company closely for a while now and my confidence is quite high.
The 2030 complete bull case is > 100 bagger. That would turn $100k into $10m. Could fund a nice waterfront and quite a few rounds of golf. Not necessarily my prediction but an interesting thought exercise.
Remember, where the business goes the share price (over time) will follow.
On the TA side of things, I must admit I don’t yet understand the nuances involved but hopefully in the future will upskill here to perhaps increase returns even further. Regardless, I imagine TA works best in a long-term uptrend, so hopefully something here for folks more equipped in this area too.
Interested to get others' thoughts on the assumptions and where you think they are right / wrong. I might update over time. I also posted a week or so ago in another thread about upcoming catalysts I saw for the stock.. I might update that too and post again when new thoughts relevant.
Despite currently "treading water" I feel there are big things ahead for the business and the stock in both the short term (via catalysts) and as importantly the long term (via fundamentals).
Food for thought.
GLTAH
(20min delay)