Wow.
Well that's our first "bagging" from the original post, less than two months ago. Now just a bit over 100 bags to go to get to our Complete Bull case
Of course, for some of our earlier holders, yesterday's move alone was worth a bag or two by itself. Nice. Potentially a sign of things to come for all of us. Speaks to the merit of being invested in a growth company early in its lifecycle.. which I believe we are still well and truly in with NVX.
Personally, I'm still relatively aligned with the core assumptions in the above model.. if anything, the recent signals suggest a potential acceleration to the plan. The one thing that I may have slightly undercalled was the dilution, particularly due to the strategic placement to Phillips.. although as above I think it means NVX may move faster, and will be offset by reinvesting dividends through the period (as I think NVX will be quite cashflow positive in later part of the decade and may in fact declare a healthy yield in the later stages..., particularly if licencing makes up a chunk of their revenues).
I also published a list of upcoming catalysts around same time, at end of June, which I suggested I would also update from time to time.. we had a surprise with Phillips but otherwise many of them are still to come... OMG. I've noted progress and updates in [ ] below.
- Dahn's official appointment due this week.. [DONE]- Samsung / Sanyo deliveries.. hopefully progress to bigger long term contracts.. (apparently other battery mfrs also in the works). remember they have already internally qualified the product. I would be amazed if Samsung / Sanyo find otherwise [recent site purchase & expansion plans seems validation this is imminent]- US review of critical materials will lead to DOE grant(s) and I'd bet a BIG cheap loan to accelerate / scale and avoid dilution [remember Liveris basically helped negotiate the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and has deep ties to US govt incl Biden]- Cathode DPMG development & pilot batches. Single crystal, use of lower grade input materials incl lower cost, more abundant Nickel oxides.. potential early licencing?- Announcement about new battery IP.. eg Graphite / Silicon anode or electrolyte which they have indicated are in the works & "IP being filed" [now they are also emphasising up next generation battery tech.. and investing via Dalhousie]- Europe announcement [comments in annual report about "other jurisdictions" seem to call out this direction]- Graphite supply outlook apparently very tight over next several years (eg benchmark minerals).. NVX the only qualified US supplier! [Yep.. pricing >US$10k / tonne seems justified for the foreseeable future]- Partnership announcement with major auto ... interesting VW touted "synthetic graphite" at Power Day, and GM manufacturing just down the road from our TN plant. We all know the ties to Lucid. God help us if they ever drop the "T" word [some recent TSLA gossip here, via the recent article in The Australian.. and the Oklahoma links that have recently been doing the rounds on this forum. Maybe dpmg cathode? If true fasten your seat belts. Also Rivian via SDI which are going for an $80bn valuation!]- I reckon there is something in the works with upstream materials suppliers too (eg lithium from Lake, SYR).. although we might not hear the true details on this for a while... potentially moving more vertically integrated? [Possibly something via Emera partnership?]- Nasdaq listing [they've issued a few social media comments on this.. when some of these above announcements may come together?]- the ones from left field. We all know NVX play things close to their chest [Phillips was an example, what else is there to come?]
I'm puffed. Any of these above could provide another nice spike.
Let's gooo.
GLTAH
CB
(20min delay)