The whole report is worth a read even if you're not an NWE holder as it has lots of detail about the north perth basin.
Since all the numbers are there I though it might be interesting to use the same valuation methodology on TTE's DR11 and EP455 permits. Note that the valuation is risked at 10% of full value.
Since we've got figures for estimated in place gas in Kockatea and Carynginia formations on page 21 I've tried to work out TTE's in place potential by eyeballing the map on page 18 of the last investor presentation. If you do this with NWE it's a fairly close match for the figure they came up with.
for NWE I'm estimating EP413 covers 20% of Carynginia and 10% of Kockatea i.e. 98tcf * 20% + 100tcf * 10% = 29.6 gross/ 8.4 net (28.3% interest). Adding a bit for Irwin river coal measures that's probably pretty close.
for TTE EP455 I'm estimating 25% Carynginia 98tcf * 20% = 19.6 gross / 3.6 net (18.5% interest)
for TTE DR11 10% Carynginia and 20% Kockatea 98tcf * 10% + 100tcf * 20% = 29.6 (100% interest)
I've not included IRCM or any other potential zones since I don't have estimates for them.
net totals: Carynginia/Kockatea: 13.4/20tcf
Plugging that into the same formula used in Fig 19 pg 21 of the hartleys report:
Gas in place (net): 13.4/20tcf Recovery factor: 20% Recoverable gas: 2.68/4tcf NPV/mcf: 75c Unrisked Value: $2010m/$3000m Probability of success: 10% (note this is considered outdated and far too conservative) Risked Value: $201m/$300m
I'd be inclined to consider Kockatea a riskier prospect so let's just drop it and call it $201m. That translates to a share price of 25c for Carynginia alone. Or in the common currency about 15 bags.
GEV Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
