PV1 5.00% 1.9¢ provaris energy ltd

nwe broker report - extrapolating to tte, page-27

  1. 1,653 Posts.
    We have also used a rule of thumb method for valuing the resource potential. We have applied an NPV/mcf of $0.75 to the estimated net recoverable gas of 0.4Tcf (20% recoverability). On a 10% probability of success basis, we arrive at a value of $24m (2.4cps) and an unrisked value of $238m (24cps).

    The above refers to the unconventional part of NWE's assets only. Note that before minesterial approval was given to frac NWE was trading around 3-4c. Fair to say it was being valued below NPV on all it's assets. Once approval was given the unconvention NP basin assets became the focus. Now that fraccing has started and derisking in progress we are nearing 10c. 1/2 of that unrisked value. Does anyone think the market has developed a sudden interest in their other assets? I doubt it, all eyes are on Arrowsmith. As TTE derisks it can expect similar treatment and part of that process is happening now by proving up the basin in several areas.
 
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