Maybe the Hancock & MIN funded gas ezport lobbyists believe they have done the job in swaying the WA Domgas decision towards more export.
Remember that the MinRes / NWE takeover bid came a day or two after the AEMO WA GSOO report.
Worth a read. But here are the key findings.
Key findings Based on forecast demand and expected new and committed supply sources, the Western Australian (WA) domestic gas market is facing a tight supply demand balance between 2023 and 2029, with demand up to 5% higher than potential supply. The outlook has three distinct phases:
• In every year up to 2026, potential gas supply is forecast to be insufficient to meet domestic demand. However, the deficit is small – 45 petajoules (PJ) over four years peaking in 2024 at 49 terajoules (TJ)/day.
• Between 2027 and 2029, supply is forecast to slightly exceed demand as Scarborough is expected to be brought onstream at 180 TJ/day from mid-2027. The projected surplus is 38 PJ over three years at a maximum rate of 48 TJ/day, or from 1.3% of demand in 2027 up to 4.1% in 2029.
• From 2030 onwards, the gas market is forecast to move into a larger deficit, with shortfalls over 200 TJ/day between 2030 to 2032 (over 16% of demand each year). This is driven by planned coal retirements increasing the need for gas generation and a decline in production from existing gas fields. The projected supply gaps could be alleviated by:
• Withdrawals from storage – WA has 78 PJ of storage capacity which can deliver gas at up to 210 TJ/day. • Small quantities of short term additional supply from existing domestic gas production facilities. • In the longer term, development of gas fields that are not currently included in the gas supply forecasts, such as Corvus, LOCKYER DEEP or SOUTH ERREGULLA.
• Large gas users transitioning more rapidly to lower emissions energy sources. The WA Government’s Domestic Gas Policy remains a cornerstone of WA’s gas supply to the domestic market. WA domestic gas demand is forecast to increase from 1,099 TJ/day in 2023 to 1,278 TJ/day in 2032, at an average annual rate of 1.7%, with contributions to growth from: • Committed new resources projects, which are expected to add 43 TJ/day to gas demand by 2026.
• South West Interconnected System (SWIS) generation gas demand, which is forecast to grow from 127 TJ/day in 2023 to 304 TJ/day in 2032, as Synergy’s scheduled coal retirements are only partially replaced by renewables. Decarbonisation in iron ore mining is forecast to partially offset demand growth, with gas use in iron ore expected to drop from 157 TJ/day in 2023 to 107 TJ/day in 2032, despite forecast increasing production.
My Conclusion.
The WA Gas market is tightly balanced for the next 10 years although this doesn't include Lockyer Deep as their is no certified resource yet.
Once Lockyer Deep becomes certified resource all bets are off and the AEMO GSOO completely changes thus enabling excess gas to become available for the export gas market.
Minres know this will happen in 2023 and have acted accordingly a couple of days after this report was made public.
So as a NWE, STX & TPD holder I will do absolutely nothing but hold on for the ride as prices will go north
