morning all,
NC has given permission to air this and discuss it.
following comes from my morning discussion with NC on the NY listing. Another conversation - similar but briefer was had just after the meeting with 7 HC members inc. myself - 6 of them regular and popular contributors -- so, there is plenty of substantiation for this.
If I have missed anything - I hope the others come in and pick me up - also, if I have got anything wrong - please ditto.
This discussion does not cover the entire NY listing process - that is a very long and complex process - it does, however, give a basic idea of the players involved - how they will be set for the contest of listing day - the layout of the battlefield and how the battle will be fought.
There are several other very important settings and setups to be done prior - eg. setting the IPO price and exact timing --------------- none of that stuff is decided as far as I know - in detail - all is very flexible at this stage ------------ anyone who is expecting exactitude atm ------------ forget it --------- this is battle planning stage.
Now - before we start ------------- there is one BIG word that people really have to get a grip on the definition of ----------------- that word is 'MANAGE'.
When we talk about 'manage' - we will mainly be referring to the Investment bank ---------------------- MANAGING THE TRADE on the floor - ie. when the stock is trading day to day on the floor.
The word manage means ------------------------------------------- 'massage' or 'adjust' or 'mould' or 'influence' or 'guide' or 'assist' ----------- some, may even call it 'manipulate' - I could not possibly call it manipulate ------------- I think - 'massage' is more appropriate - in other words, let's have no confusion here - the price is shoved, pushed and poked where we want it to go - by the conductor of the orchestra ---------- the investment bank - this is NOT Australia - this is New York.
This is where the battle comes in ----------- their job (investment bank) is to control the market (to conduct the battle music) - to assist it in it's controlled direction - smoothly. Other than their mustered troops (already enlisted) - the other players in the field - on the day of listing and days after that are --------------- the rest, the mob - some may call it the market ------------ whatever you want to call it - that group is full of many others all mainly with one reason for being --------------- to make money. One must realise however, that out there in market land - there will be 4 investment banks who didn't get the gong - all with their own institutional followers ------------- some of them, shall we say, rather upset that they are not the chosen one - who, I would, I assume be rather pleased if the conductor lost his way - and would be more than happy to assist in him losing control of the situation ------------------------- be VERY aware of this. Also always remember - that ALL 5 banks think AJX is hot to trot - really hot.
Now ----------- lets get back to the word ------------------------ we call it 'manage' from here on in. Just always remember what the hell we are talking about here, again, this is not Australia.
OK - to begin to get a real handle on what is going on and what is going to happen - I had to tie in about 3 conversations with Nick before it began to really make sense what he meant.
The first ---------- I wrote about - when I gave his 3 reasons for choosing which Investment bank to go with ----------------------- sorry, I can't find the bloody post - but, I remember 2 of the 3 reasons. And Golden ------------ I have zero ideas on how he is measuring this stuff - sorry.
- That the Bank - had to have the ability to 'MANAGE' the trade on the floor - there is that word 'manage'.
- That the bank could bring an institution (or more than one - but, let's just call it one) ---------- who could bring the RIGHT 'POOL' of investors - important words - read em again and think that through. (a percentage of that 'pool' will participate in the IPO - the rest - after listing).
- reason -------- can't remember - if someone finds my post or wants to go through my reams of notes ----------- please feel free (seriously - just post the post number if you find it).
Also revisit the following
Ref. posts
14913760
NB this point ---------- "Nick - says the following is important for everyone to understand
The true MC of the business in the US is not a fair value until the first 2 weeks of full trading.
(He gave the example of a company that had a MC of $450 mil. on the day the bell rings - and said that would not have any bearing on what the MC could be in 2 weeks - say $900 million)."
Listen to what he is saying - don't just hear the words.
Also NC has said these words - and, in the interest of openness and clarity --------- I feel I should pass them on.
First up - Nick says ----------- if we lose control of this -------- everything is fixable.
He says that listing on the NYSE can go spectacularly RIGHT or spectacularly WRONG - and there isn't often anything in between.
So, this will be a story of --------------- the GOOD, the BAD, or the sheer bloody terrifying -------------- BUT, remember ----------- it IS fixable if it goes wrong ---------- the only thing you can do to harm yourself is 'panic'. Be cool - and you will be ok - you will see better with the drawings below.
Now - I decided that to write up in words the battleplan and describe the players was going to be about as long as War and Peace - so, I have done some childlike pictures ------------ which, I HOPE will display in a few drawings what I would have taken hundreds of words to describe.
My absolute apologies if my artistically brilliant and beautiful drawings - do not display clarity - Captainette Kangaroo took one look and said - it's all too busy for me - you will confuse the poo out of them ----------------- hmmm, you are so warned.
OK --------------- Our team.
View attachment 54106
OK -- the opening battle -------------- Listing day NY
View attachment 54107
The angry one's are probably the odd bank that missed out and some of their insto. mates - make no bones about this -- there are some noses out of joint here already.
Now - below are some very simplistic drawings of what the objective is - and what some of the fails look like if we either get it wrong from the start ------------ or lose control.
All this carry on about pools of 'right' investors and 'management' is geared to one thing only -
a 'controlled' 'sustained' NE movement of the stock price ----------- with limited or no risk of the dreaded word ------------------ 'reset'.
View attachment 54108
The horror show --------- you will be safe - but, you won't be terribly happy about it -
View attachment 54109
So - the battle is almost always won BEFORE one takes to the field.
There are many things to get right first ------------------ one example ----------- the IPO price -
it should not be too high ---------------- $5 plus would have a highly probable chance of giving us the mother of all resets -- open at $5 - jump madly because of amazing demand ----------- then the fizz runs out and we plummet down looking for a 'real' value.
Not nice, not pretty - -------- and not enough dunny paper in the cupboard to control matters.
The IPO price --------- has to be in a 'right' ballpark - not too high - not too low.
Disregard this next bit - it is my opinion only --- I think NC is sort of, in a roundabout way telling us that the realistic thinking is between $1 and $1.50.
So, my head is saying $1.25 or $1.50. However, I also 'think' there is a chance we could go at $2 ------------- don't ask me why ---------- just feel it.
Remember - if you are thinking what is this worth to me - for god's sake remember to convert the currency.
OK - I think that's enough for now --------- I have some other thoughts that will come out in the discussion - but, that's pretty much how it will go as far as I believe from the conversations.
Have a great day all
Pinto
(20min delay)