morning all, NC has given permission to air this and discuss it....

morning all,

NC has given permission to air this and discuss it.


following comes from my morning discussion with NC on the NY listing. Another conversation - similar but briefer was had just after the meeting with 7 HC members inc. myself - 6 of them regular and popular contributors  -- so, there is plenty of substantiation for this.
If I have missed anything - I hope the others come in and pick me up - also, if I have got anything wrong - please ditto.

This discussion does not cover the entire NY listing process - that is a very long and complex process - it does, however, give a basic idea of the players involved -  how they will be set for the contest of listing day - the layout of the battlefield and how the battle will be fought.

There are several other very important settings and setups to be done prior - eg. setting the IPO price and exact timing --------------- none of that stuff is decided as far as I know - in detail - all is very flexible at this stage ------------ anyone who is expecting exactitude atm ------------ forget it --------- this is battle planning stage.


Now - before we start ------------- there is one BIG word that people really have to get a grip on the definition of ----------------- that word is 'MANAGE'.

When we talk about 'manage' - we will mainly be referring to the Investment bank ---------------------- MANAGING THE TRADE on the floor - ie. when the stock is trading day to day on the floor.

The word manage means ------------------------------------------- 'massage' or 'adjust' or 'mould' or 'influence' or 'guide' or 'assist' ----------- some, may even call it 'manipulate' - I could not possibly call it manipulate ------------- I think - 'massage' is more appropriate - in other words, let's have no confusion here - the price is shoved, pushed and poked where we want it to go - by the conductor of the orchestra ---------- the investment bank - this is NOT Australia - this is New York.

This is where the battle comes in ----------- their job (investment bank) is to control the market (to conduct the battle music) - to assist it in it's controlled direction - smoothly.  Other than their mustered troops (already enlisted) - the other players in the field - on the day of listing and days after that are --------------- the rest, the mob - some may call it the market ------------ whatever you want to call it - that group  is full of many others all mainly with one reason for being --------------- to make money. One must realise however, that out there in market land - there will be 4  investment banks who didn't get the gong - all with their own institutional followers ------------- some of them, shall we say, rather upset that they are not the chosen one - who, I would, I assume be rather pleased if the conductor lost his way - and would be more than happy to assist in him losing control of the situation ------------------------- be VERY aware of this. Also always remember - that ALL 5 banks think AJX is hot to trot - really hot.

Now ----------- lets get back to the word ------------------------  we call it 'manage' from here on in. Just always remember what the hell we are talking about here, again, this is not Australia.

OK - to begin to get a real handle on what is going on and what is going to happen - I had to tie in about 3 conversations with Nick before it began to really make sense what he meant.

The first ---------- I wrote about - when I gave his 3 reasons for choosing which Investment bank to go with ----------------------- sorry, I can't find the bloody post - but, I remember 2 of the 3 reasons. And  Golden ------------ I have zero ideas on how he is measuring this stuff - sorry.

1. That the Bank - had to have the ability to 'MANAGE' the trade on the floor - there is that word 'manage'.

1. That the bank could bring an institution (or more than one - but, let's just call it one) ---------- who could bring the RIGHT 'POOL' of investors - important words - read em again and think that through. (a percentage of that 'pool' will participate in the IPO - the rest - after listing).

1. reason -------- can't remember - if someone finds my post or wants to go through my reams of notes ----------- please feel free (seriously - just post the post number if you find it).

Also revisit the following
Ref. posts

14913760

NB this point ---------- "Nick - says the following is important for everyone to understand
The true MC of the business in the US is not a fair value until the first 2 weeks of full trading.
(He gave the example of a company that had a MC of $450 mil. on the day the bell rings - and said that would not have any bearing on what the MC could be in 2 weeks - say $900 million)."

Listen to what he is saying - don't just hear the words.


Also NC has said these words - and, in the interest of openness and clarity --------- I feel I should pass them on.

First up -  Nick says ----------- if we lose control of this -------- everything is fixable.

He says that listing on the NYSE can go spectacularly RIGHT or spectacularly WRONG - and there isn't often anything in between.

So, this will be a story of --------------- the GOOD, the BAD, or the sheer bloody terrifying -------------- BUT, remember ----------- it IS fixable if it goes wrong ---------- the only thing you can do to harm yourself is 'panic'. Be cool - and you will be ok - you will see better with the drawings below.


Now - I decided that to write up in words the battleplan and describe the players was going to be about as long as War and Peace - so, I have done some childlike pictures ------------ which, I HOPE will display in a few drawings what I would have taken hundreds of words to describe.

My absolute apologies if my artistically brilliant and beautiful drawings - do not display clarity - Captainette Kangaroo took one look and said - it's all too busy for me - you will confuse the poo out of them ----------------- hmmm, you are so warned.


OK --------------- Our team.




OK -- the opening battle -------------- Listing day NY


The angry one's are probably the odd bank that missed out and some of their insto. mates  - make no bones about this -- there are some noses out of joint here already.

Now - below are some very simplistic drawings of what the objective is - and what some of the fails look like if we either get it wrong from the start ------------ or lose control.

All this carry on about pools of 'right' investors and 'management' is geared to one thing only -

a 'controlled' 'sustained' NE movement of the stock price ----------- with limited or no risk of the dreaded word ------------------ 'reset'.



The horror show --------- you will be safe - but, you won't be terribly happy about it -




So - the battle is almost always won BEFORE  one takes to the field.

There are many things to get right first ------------------ one example ----------- the IPO price -

it should not be too high ---------------- $5 plus would have a highly probable chance of giving us the mother of all resets -- open at $5 - jump madly because of amazing demand ----------- then the fizz runs out and we plummet down looking for a 'real' value.

Not nice, not pretty - -------- and not enough dunny paper in the cupboard to control matters.

The IPO price --------- has to be in a 'right' ballpark  - not too high - not too low.

Disregard this next bit - it is my opinion only --- I think NC is sort of, in a roundabout way telling us that the realistic thinking is between $1 and $1.50.
So, my head is saying $1.25 or $1.50. However, I also 'think' there is a chance we could go at $2 ------------- don't ask me why ---------- just feel it.

Remember - if you are thinking what is this worth to me - for god's sake remember to convert the currency.

OK - I think that's enough for now --------- I have some other thoughts that will come out in the discussion - but, that's pretty much how it will go as far as I believe from the conversations.

Have a great day all

Pinto