nyrstar now odds on?

I think Nyrstar's comments on the impact of the ETS for them is a strong hint that the second party involved with INL is Nyrstar and the third party is the Federal government.

If the ink is dry on an agreement with Nyrstar?, then the third party (federal Govt?) discussions on the Emissions Trading Scheme would explain the delay when things were so close.

As the Nyrstar Emissions trading scheme discussions with the government were not fruitful, this would also explain the change in tone of the second announcement, including the lack of a firm date being available for release of the announcement.

"Only one month ago, Nyrstar were not prepared to make such a statement but clearly after discussions with the Government they are now prepared to make such a statement."
"Their concerns, whilst being listened to are not being acted upon."

Nyrstar is also under a lot of pressure to clean up its pollution plume from the Risdon plant smelting. Could a new Intec process plant be planned to replace the Risdon plant with a gradual change over of process? The Intec process would solve a lot of the emission problems Nyrstar have at Risdon/Port Pirie.

If the above assumptions are correct, (and it is a big if)I would expect an announcement soon from INL saying that the project is delayed until the impact of impending government regulations (ETS?) can be assessed.

As a book is being run on another site on the likely contenders for the agreement, I think this makes Nyrstar about 5/4 on in my money as the second party.

Even if an IMRP delay is announced by INL now , I think this would still be a positive as it would be another step in confirming Nyrstar as the second party and all this involves.

I don’t think the Rudd government could stand Risdon and Port Pirie smelters closing down as a result of its draft ETS. They will have to respond with a deal for Nyrstar and industry that gives both sides a win-win.

One way to do this could be trialling introduction of the greener IMRP process for refining, with an aim of a gradual phasing out of smelting at its Risdon plant.

Pure speculation on my part……… yes and unasheamedly so! I think it has some merit from the information available and will be buying more INL as the opportunity presents.
Even in adversity there are investing opportunities. I am putting my dollars where my speculation directs.

This is not an attempt to ramp INL, just an explanation of what I see as a strong possibility to make sense of cloudy waters.

Any comments welcome including flames :-)

Datrat