KYP 0.00% 9.5¢ kinatico ltd

NZ Children's Worker Safety Checks, page-5

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    The criticisms of CV1 are reasonable, but a little inconsistent.
    If it is a crowded marketplace, then the approach to spend heavily on marketing and grab market share is appropriate. Corporate and government users will find little reason to switch to another supplier for a commodity service assuming the price remains reasonably competitive.
    All of CV1's competitors are facing the same issue, the need to attain suitable volumes of business to cover their fixed costs and be profitable.
    From here, these competitors will either be bought out, if they have anything of value, or whither if they fail to make up the volumes.
    SEEK is a bigger threat, as they can potentially use existing relationships and their substantial financial muscle to support the background check division. CV1 again, for my money, is taking the best option by scaling up as fast as possible. SEEK's weaknesses are they are a little late to the game, are potentially not as agile as CV1, and have lots of other things going on to distract them from background checks.
    Should SEEK want to dominate the background check business, a $26m mkt cap competitor that has spent money acquiring customers and establishing a brand might be a simple purchase for a $5bn company.
    Indications so far are that CV1 revenue growth is continuing, and they are on track to make their projections.

    Will there be further funds needed? I think, probably yes, even if they hit their forecasts there will be a strong temptation to keep growing fast, which will take more cash.
    Is it a good investment? Time will tell, but it has the potential to achieve substantial scale from a nearly fixed cost base, allowing them to undercut new market entrants.
    If you look at SEEK or Carsales or RealEstate.com.au, none of them were guaranteed to be market leaders, but as they achieve dominance they squeeze out the competition.
    CV1 has the chance to do the same for background checks.
 
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