NZ exports update May 18 & IF exports Analysis, page-374

"Growth was not 3% as that is only Lyttleton."

If you read my post, I was referring specifically to jzhuang's expectation of 50%+ growth in exports from Lyttleton. He projected 50% and the figure came in at 3%. The Dunsandel plant (served by Lyttleton port) is the only Synlait IF plant with GACC approval to produce IF for the Chinese market.

"Can't grow when plant has been operating at capacity for a few months now. " Are you mixed up here? Pokeno is the new plant, not Dunsandel. And it appears nothing was produced there for export in September.

"Need to look at Auckland which is shipping Auckland manufactured product."

I would like that to be the explanation also. Auckland plant could be served by either Auckland port or (further away) Tauranga port, and both have seen large YoY increases for September. So it's definitely possible and that's what I'm hoping also.

However, Auckland plant still does not have GACC approval for IF either. It's been speculated (but not confirmed from any source) that some IF for the Australian market is canned in Auckland and exported via Auckland port. And since they are not the sole user of that port (unlike Lyttleton), it is harder to know what proportion of overall export volume from Auckland is A2 IF. So I'd be a bit more cautious about simply taking the Auckland exports and counting it all as A2 IF, as you have done.