I think there was some panic when the Sydney outbreak happened and there was immediate talk of the proposed travel bubble being postponed. The outbreak hasn't blown up yet and it looks like they are keeping the possibility of the bubble open for now, so barring more events I doubt it will head towards 1.5. Accelerted rolling out of vaccination programs should help too.
It will all come down to what happens after christmas / new year. Will there be a fresh surge caused by undetected asymptomatic carriers spreading it around over xmas & ny? Time will tell. It is a definite risk.
NZ finally opening up, page-6
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