I am thinking NZ could be the canary in the coal mine for our market. I know they had strong immigration but also a lot of migration to Australia plus the usual brain drain to London etc but there are a lot of similarities to Australia
- had a very strong currency supported by high interest rates relative to many other currencies...yen carry trade etc
- now interest rates are being cut sharply to post war lows
- currency has devalued sharply, and has even devalued vs $A, itself a poor performer
- cultural similarities don't make a comparison a stretch
- why is NZ the canary? they are in their 5th quarter of negative growth, not their first as in Australia
here is an interesting blog, this bloke reckons NZ prices are tracking US with a significant lag, was also interested in his comments re Mexican standoff buyers waiting on sidelines believing values coming their way, sellers being stubborn at this point in time....result is time to sell has roughly doubled, and sales volumes are much lower than before
