As you no doubt would have noticed, the report values NZC at 50c/share only for stage 1. Once this stage gets up and running it could generate average annual cash flows of A$50m and thus help fund stage 2.
Stage 2 capex of ~A$ 178m (est. at current FX) would then become affordable in Yr 2 or 3 assuming 50% debt and 50% internal accruals. So ideally, one should add the NPVs for the two stages to get a full fair value i.e. $0.50+$0.95 = $1.45/share.
If you want to be more conservative, discount stage 2 NPV by 3 years to adjust for the late start relative to stage 1. That would still give you $1.1/share cumulatively.
And all these use a 15% NPV and ignore the base metal inflation. Midcycle nobody will use 15%, more likely 10%. That would take you to A$1.6/share. If you add base metal inflation then even with the superprofits tax you are still likely well over A$2/share. That means anywhere from 4x to 7x! Not far fetched at all.
If it was just a double, most of us wouldn't even be here. Not worth the trouble.
