Good work here. I think all your reasoning is pretty sound.
Re the catalyst
I actually think the beauty of this elegance is that an investment from this valuation will work out pretty well even if margins and growth are modest from here.
The business is generating so much cash, it presents compelling returns on capital whilst it transitions toward (with cash flow facilitating) a more digital future (ie less print, more online user engagement) and is near monopoly like in terms of its provision of news to engaged kiwis.
Also somewhat ironically, a lower share price at the moment, and into the buy-back, is very valuable for long-term owners of this business, as they will increase their % ownership given the quantum of capital made available for the buy-back.
I think this is a terrific business to own at these valuation levels and I'll keep increasing my stake in this business.
NZM Price at posting:
$1.13 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)