I'll post a reply to my previous post rather than respond to...

I'll post a reply to my previous post rather than respond to Mingi's.

Tui, I agree that the problem with the options is the timing, and this is the operatic bit otherwise there would be no drama.

There is still time for:

PRC Coking coal price to double with some undertakings for the contract price to last for more than a year, which should cause the PRC share price to at least double. Most Australian producing coal company shares have already doubled.

Tui could upgrade - Digger says to 64M barrels recalling initial oil in place and great recovery through stronger than planned aquifer and fitting those pressure controllers - DS also says that the field is just much bigger than they thought. So there could be 1 or 3Mbo for NZO there.

Kupe/Momoho/other near field discoveries - likely to be late but an increase in liquids or more reserves could give DS his target reserves.

The last possibility is a preferred partner/white knight taking up a major financial interest....

Remember, DS is a lawyer and lawyers never pose a question that they do not already know the answer to....his performance targets will,consequently, probably turn out to have been soft...

So the options look pretty safe to convert - it is just how many rabbits have to be pulled out of the bag and at what price. Price is where I believe some manipulation may occur by those with real money. Don't expect a share price a lot over 1.50 for very long before conversion.