I agree, companies in phase 1 are often seen as still being 7-8...

I agree, companies in phase 1 are often seen as still being 7-8 years away from approvals and with a 10,000 / 1 chance of getting there, hence often valued with a 99% discount.

The difference here is we potentially could be approved on early P2 data if the FDA gives us ODD & likes the data. Given there’s not much choice or option for patients, it’s a strong possibility.

I think we’re a little under fair value right now as this isn’t being considered, depending on what the FDA say soon that might change.

in regards to the $3b opportunity - there’s many examples of companies reaching 3-6x its MC on transaction, or 20x on approvals & revenue.

Put simply, if peak sales estimates are similar to what the CEO has over spruiked at $1b, then PAA could be looking at a $3b + valuation. Anytime in the next 12-36 months.

If they went it themselves and gained approvals and started collecting that revenue themselves ($1b might take a few years to get penetration & scale in certain geography’s) then you start talking 10-20x valuations over revenue.