In my experience the market doesn't normally work quantitatively quite so nicely, especially in specs. It is more based on sentiment, otherwise we would be higher now? I think sentiment wise there is still a very large perception of risk. Not everyone applies a logical, risk discount model (knowingly anyway). If they did it would make this much easier to predict.
If we applied the same model above, we should be significantly higher now, right? Why is it that we are not?
I hope we head much higher of course, and that your discount assumptions prove correct.
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