o. costelooooo.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/costellos-poll-position/2008/08/17/1218911460323.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

Costello's poll position

Phillip Coorey Chief Political Correspondent
August 18, 2008

PETER COSTELLO has been given renewed incentive to stage a political comeback, with the latest Herald/Nielsen poll showing him the overwhelming preference among voters to become Opposition leader.

The poll, taken after a month of heightened speculation about the Liberal leadership, finds 44 per cent of voters prefer Mr Costello, compared with 27 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 17 per cent for the incumbent, Brendan Nelson.

Among Coalition voters, almost four times as many prefer the former treasurer to Dr Nelson, and more than twice as many support Mr Costello as Mr Turnbull.

The only concern for the former treasurer is that 24 per cent who voted Labor at the last election say they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition if Mr Costello were leader, while 15 per cent said they would be more likely.

Mr Costello is yet to confirm the decision he made last November to quit politics and is under growing internal pressure to supplant Dr Nelson, whose personal approval rating has hit new lows.

The poll shows Dr Nelson's approval rating has fallen 5 percentage points in a month to 31 per cent and his disapproval rating has risen 7 points to 53 per cent.

Kevin Rudd has also taken a hit in the popularity stakes, with his approval rating falling 6 points to 60 per cent, still high but the lowest for Mr Rudd since he became Prime Minister. His disapproval rating rose 4 points to 31 per cent. Mr Rudd has lost most support among the over-55s, sliding from 65 per cent to 51 per cent since the budget, in May.

Mr Rudd leads Dr Nelson as preferred prime minister by 65 per cent to 31 per cent, which is unchanged from a month ago.

In the match-up between the parties, Labor leads the primary vote by 43 per cent to 39 per cent and on a two-party-preferred basis by 55 per cent to 45 per cent, unchanged since last month.

Mr Costello is avoiding announcing a final decision until around the time his book is published next month but his colleagues are growing frustrated.

Yesterday the party powerbroker and frontbencher Andrew Robb said Mr Costello was entitled to make a decision when he was ready "but there's a limit to it".

"I said back in February that a lot of these sorts of issues should be dealt with within six or seven months and my decision hasn't change on that."

No one in the Liberal Party claims to know what Mr Costello is thinking, although all who speak with him are left with the impression that he will quit.

Another senior figure noted that Parliament resumed next week for a busy session of debate of budget measures and other key legislation.

The party could ill-afford to remain paralysed over the leadership, he said.

The poll of 1400 voters was taken from last Thursday to Saturday and follows a month in which Dr Nelson's leadership reached tipping point with his messy handling of climate change policy.

In direct match-ups of the main Liberal candidates, support for Mr Costello and Mr Turnbull among ALP voters is equal, suggesting Mr Turnbull has more support from soft Labor supporters. The poll shows that, in a direct match-up, 56 per cent of voters prefer Mr Costello over 27 per cent for Dr Nelson.

Among Coalition voters, 74 per cent of voters want Mr Costello, compared with 19 per cent for Dr Nelson. Against Mr Turnbull, 49 per cent of all voters prefer Mr Costello, compared with 35 per cent for the shadow treasurer.

Among Coalition voters, support for Mr Costello over Mr Turnbull jumps to 65 per cent versus 28 per cent.

Mr Turnbull beats Dr Nelson in all match-ups.

Among all voters, Mr Turnbull has 47 per cent support, compared with 31 per cent for Dr Nelson. The same figures apply among Labor voters.

Among Coalition voters, Mr Turnbull beats Dr Nelson by 54 per cent to 31 per cent.

The poll also quizzed voters on the grocery inquiry released the week before last by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, which found that there was "workable" competition between supermarkets.

Opinion on the ACCC's finding was evenly split, with 41 per cent agreeing and 45 per cent disagreeing.