It is true if OAKAJEE doesn't go ahead, then the cost of GBG...

It is true if OAKAJEE doesn't go ahead, then the cost of GBG supplying IO would be around $65/70 in comparison to BHP/RIO which is around $30's.
Hence, the production becomes much less profitable.

Also look at the following comment in the MGX posting.

scary times for IO price - chart is terrible and shipments starting to be delayed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TSIPIO62:IND
bear in mind that the $131 price IO is now trading at is a landed price in China - MGX would be getting about $100 at these prices, so margin down significantly. still good if it holds, but that chart doesnt look promising. the $120 used in my analysis only a month ago is already smashed.