Who can stay the trip – 2013 Crown Oaks breeding analysisClinton...

Who can stay the trip – 2013 Crown Oaks breeding analysis
Clinton Payne - 6/11/2013
The $1 million Group I Crown Oaks (2500m) is run at Flemington on Thursday and Breednet editor Tara Madgwick writes, "pedigree becomes a part of the form guide you can't do without”.
1 - May's Dream ( New Approach (IRE) x She's Archie, by Archway (IRE) )
Dad won the English Derby and sired this year's Epsom Oaks winner Talent, while mum won the Group I SA Oaks at 2500 metres and ran second in the Melbourne Cup. Her owners would have been thinking about her as an Oaks filly from the day she was conceived, however she is a November foal and only turned three on Melbourne Cup day, so while she's flying at present, she is likely to be a far stronger filly in the autumn.

2 - Arabian Gold (Dubawi (IRE) x Coablo, by Vettori (IRE) )
By one of the best sires in the world that runs at 11 percent stakes-winners to runners and a number of those stakes-winners have been effective over distances longer than 2000 metres, although you wouldn't say he was a staying sire as such. Her mother was a handy winner at 1400 metres, but she does go back to the family of Victoria Derby winner Kings' High.

3 - Kirramosa (NZ) (Alamosa x Freyja, by Danske)
From the first crop of high class Kiwi miler Alamosa and her dam is a half-sister to handy stayer Zareyev from Olga's Pal, who won a New Zealand 1000 Guineas and was fourth in the New Zealand Oaks. Revelled in the 2000 metres of the Wakeful and no reason to think she won't enjoy a bit further as well.

4 - Gypsy Diamond (Not a Single Doubt x Gypsy Tucker, by Zabeel)
Not many by Not a Single Doubt get past a mile, but her dam is by Zabeel and she does look more like a Zabeel so that's in her favour, but the rest of her female family is speed oriented going back to legendary producer Fanfreluche. Ran on okay in the Wakeful, but that extra 500 metres is going to be the issue. The blinkers also go back on for her spring grand final.

5/ Solicit (Street Cry (IRE) x Princesa, by Danehill (USA))
By top class versatile sire that can get a stayer and she's actually bred on the same cross as Melbourne Cup winner Shocking. Her dam was a sprinter and she's a half-sister to a very good miler in Star Of Giselle and while the immediate family is more about sprinter/milers, it does go back to a great Kiwi family that has produced everything from Golden Slipper winner Courtza, to top class stayer Our Pompeii and Cox Plate winner Ocean Park. Why not an Oaks winner?

6 - Quayside (Street Cry (IRE) x Quays, by Royal Academy (USA))
Another by the same sire and she's already a winner at 1900 metres. Dam won the Wakeful and was placed in Australian and Queensland Oaks, while grand-dam Pontal Lass won the Flight Stakes and was third in the VRC Oaks, so she's bred to be here.

7 - Every Faith (Not a Single Doubt x Zephyria, by Zabeel)
Bred the same way as Gypsy Diamond and has similar expectation of running the trip, albeit not racing as well as that filly to this point.

8 - Zanbagh (Bernardini (USA) x Wild Iris, by Spectrum (IRE))
By the sire of Epsom Handicap winner Boban, who has also produced a few stayers amongst his Aussie-bred winners and dam won the Australian Oaks, so Zanbagh has an Oaks pedigree and a patient trainer to go with it in Guy Walter, who also trained her mum. Yet to be tested in black-type company, but did win by five last start over 2000 metres and has been set for the race a long way out.

9 - Melaleuca (Stratum x Ettu Blu, by Prince Echo (IRE))
Half-sister to Group II Adelaide Cup winner Rialya and sire Stratum has an Oaks winner on the resume in Streama, albeit being a Golden Slipper winner himself. Won her maiden at a mile and last two runs in black-type races okay, without being great so will have to improve sharply to figure in the money and am not convinced she has it in her.

10 - Tear Gas (NZ) (High Chaparral (IRE) x Irlanda, by O'Reilly)
Lightly raced and only average in the Wakeful, but she is by an outstanding staying sire and her dam was a Group II winning sprinter miler by O'Reilly, whose offspring are versatile as well as fast and there is plenty of staying blood further back in the pedigree. Bred to be here, but you'd need a big leap of faith to back her.

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