Sorry Stefan, but that is just not a good enough response.
1. The above data says that CC spend grew by 4.1% in FY19, and transactions grew by circa 4.7%
So, how much did GDP increase by in 2019? Answer: 2.2%. So CC spend grew faster than GDP, or the general economy. So, what was Australia's population growth in 2019? Answer: 1.4% So again, CC spend and transactions grew much faster than the population.
So your response that "all types of payments increase due to the simple nature of population growth and increased global prosperity (I used GDP as a reasonable proxy here), patently does not nearly enough explain things.
The original assertion, that I have heard ad nausea around these parts, that CC usage is in decline, is patently just not true, even accounting for "the simple nature of population and GDP growth".
2. Regarding Agenda's: I am not an APT holder, and thus do not benefit from a rising SP. Equally, I hold no short positions either, so I do not benefit from a falling SP. I am a truth seeker. I am here to try to understand APT more deeply, to learn more about the whole BNPL space. To learn more about bubble psychology as well perhaps... And to become a better investor.
Conversely, holders DO benefit from a rising SP, and so if anything, holders have an "agenda", where as I do not......
I would appreciate some intellectual honesty around this, before anyone else starts accusing me of "pushing an agenda".
3. Regarding your statement that "CC use as a share of total payments has been in drastic decline since the GFC", (which is a slightly different assertion to the original one I discussed) I am highly highly dubious about. I haven't checked, so am not making a firm statement either way, but it seems unlikely to me.
Could you share some hard data around this? Like I have been consistently?
Confining the discussion to just Australia for now, I would suggest that all card usage (CC plus Debit, plus EFTPOS) has grown significantly over the last decade. That Cash has totally collapsed. That alternatives, like Crypto, BNPL, Alipay/Wechat and whatever else are clearly rising, but off of very small bases, and are still only a small % of the total payments space.
