Beauty how you came up with that 29.5 cents, "simplified" but...

Beauty how you came up with that 29.5 cents, "simplified" but nevertheless intruiging...)


I fully support your notion of 10 cents being very conservative.

Here a few reasons why:

1,
The speculation when 3M had merely an MTA with OBJ drove spare price twice to 6.7 cents.
GSK is probably one of the best positioned pharmaceutical players globally as they concentrate on emerging markets where the world will see considerable growth figures in medium terms ( Roche also looks very attractive due to
reduced staff numbers and concentrating as well on emerging markets for their research centres as well as market innovations ).
The move away from a solely US oriented growth story is a wise move and reflects changing global economic growth centres.
The very encouraging result of our short term agreement with GSK from last year resulting in a FIM development program are massive news for OBJ....interestingly ignored or made to ignore by market, when taking agressive and successful capping tactics into consideration.
To strip the share price entirely off speculation is as if to take PE ratios out of price target forecasts for revenue companies.
Price therefore should be at least at double the current levels to include speculative outcomes of several global players.

2,
Any forthcoming deal or clear outlook onto a deal with a global company like GSK would spiral revenue calculations beyond the imaginable for the moment.
A drug with one billion dollar revenue annually would provide OBJ with, for example, 6% royalties for its delivering technology of 60 mil per year.
That, again, was a conservative number used by you previously when you discussed license deals with Bluebush.
Since we have several such irons in the fire, I doubt that we would have a single royalty revenue income stream, we would have several, hence multiplying the figure above.

3,
What is enticing to contemplate is the fact that several of our testing regimes near completion, which makes an organic growth story from one result to the next unlikely and a rapid rerating process as results come in within several month more probable.

4,
ADO was an impressive example lately of how market reacts to biotech stories when market can anticipate a conclusion period.
We are just about to hit that phase for OBJ, in my opinion. Remember how ADO was having a year ago a stellar market performance only to be sold down massively after.
Since then it lingered at low prices until the recent run started.
OBJ is copying that procedure.


5,
Testing periods for pharma usually encompasses a period of 5 years. GSK and the FMCG have our technology since 4 years which leads me to the assumption that 2011 is the decisive year for OBJ.
Market should acknowledge this but does not.
OBJ shareprice is as if paralysed and I have to agree with you that current capping and control is rather cleverly done.

6,
The FIM technology was made public last year, 6 additional patents launched.
The OTC testing regime would not last longer than a year to 18 months which sees its conclusion also in 2011.
The longer one ponders this outlook, 2011 will gear up to be massive for OBJ.

7,
Global pharmas and healthcare companies are increasingly desperate to offset the patent expiry of many market leading drugs, extend the revenue income of their existing drug pipelines and reduce generic drug influence by finding cost effective, easily introducable delivering innovations.
This alone should put fire under our shareprice as we have close agreements with several of the most aggressively investing globals for innovation in that field.

8,
Investing in OBJ at this point has extremely little downside left.
I withdrew for instance yesterday to further accumulate ADO as traders had inflated the shareprice too quickly.
OBJ is so undervalued that it is very attractive to play the global biotech innovation game without risking much downside. This is a rare opportunity and eventually the cappers will step back and let the share run, the next announcement will show if we have reached that point yet.
I agree that any mention of actual numbers attached within the next ann will see an abrupt end to the capping control mechanism.

9,
Iontophoresis is amongst the leading technologies for
innovative drug delievery patches world wide with many different research teams globally verifying this fact.




One point considered alone of the above mentioned should see us at higher shareprice levels prior to ann.
All points combined make me overly suspicious that we are a playball of a very serious player who does not want to show its hand yet and is responsible for a transition away from trading to investing stock.

Since this control of the shareprice eventuated with the last 2 anns, this player is either connected to the FMCG or GSK, one of their broker houses or affiliates, in my opinion.
Our sharebase is slowly but steadily being transformed.
Once the deal comes out the trading will show to what degree this transformation has already taken place.
When taken into account the massive amounts of shares changing hands after the GSK ann, the additional accumulation period afterwards, we must already have a very different shareholder landscape in place ( interesting that OBJ demands 600 dollars for a top 20 shareholder list ).