obj's glass ceiling....

just out of the sin bin and thought I'd post something on OBJ - and I must say there are a few good posts on OBJ urging caution and a few which are simply over the top such as "the sky's the limit".... no it ain't....


it's clear to me there's no chance of any takeover because OBJ doesn't have a killer application - if it did GSK who have been looking at OBJ stuff for over three years now would already have made their move - so I suspect that current interest revolves around what OBJ's patch can do that others can't..... no company is going to dump their current successful patch technology (and there are quite a few low-tech ones that work quite well) for an expensive alternative, but they would be interested in something that could deliver drugs other patches can't..... so if there's to be any deal it will most likely be licence fee/royalty payments, though royalties would only be down the track.....


why the glass ceiling? well no one knows the outcome of current negotiations, it's all speculation and the traders have got OBJ firmly by the goolies.... so in the absence of hard facts the players have decided that even if successful in getting a licence deal that a market cap of $100m would be the top end - and because of OBJ's MASSIVE share register that puts the sp around 8c tops - you have to realise that an MC of $100m is pretty good for a backyard biotech operation out of Brisbane, - like it or not - if the market thought it was worthy of a $200m market cap then the sp would be hovering around 12c currently and it's not.... so "sky's the limit" posters don't have a grasp of reality, forget what the world market for transdermal stuff is, it doesn't work like that - big pharma's would never pay the fair price even if OBJ's stuff was the last word in transdermal technology - which it ain't....


if OBJ sp ever gets to exceed 10c even with a good outcome it would surprise me - what won't surprise me is what happens if there's no deal..... so right now OBJ is just another casino stock - it's black or red, take your pick.... and I just try to trade it for few quid....