OBL 0.00% 90.0¢ omni bridgeway limited

Some observations / questions - this may get harsh but here...

  1. 758 Posts.
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    Some observations / questions - this may get harsh but here goes.

    If I don't look at the numbers, they've built this wonderful funds management business. Reports and presentations with pictures going up.

    If I look at the numbers, they've been empire building: the cash has gone to everyone (employees, clients and fund investors) except OBL shareholders. The share price is where it is because shareholders have given up on waiting for cashflow. Where are meaningful dividends?

    Shareholders were sold the vision that with a diversified portfolio of cases, they would have less volatile returns at a portfolio level. The problem hasn't been the volatility. It is the returns. I'd question the return multiple: how confident are you that it is 2.2x and if it really was 2.2x, why haven't we seen the cash?

    A discount of 20% on said return over 4 years seems low. I'd question whether it takes only 4 years and whether an investor would accept a 20% return over 4 years for investing in legal returns?

    Also if we're looking at EBIT, worth using EV or subtracting interest costs.

    If this was a wonderful funds management business, it should've worked by now. Aren't they meant to be harvesting all those earlier cases? So either the return on cases ain't high enough, cases take longer than expect, employees aren't earning their keep or some combination. In my view, their EPV, FV or whatever non-cash numbers are academic.

    Thanks for the BUR quote. They worked out early that the funds management model doesn't work well for shareholders based on their own experience and those of peers. They've been proven right based on how OBL has fared.
 
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