I make a few comments on a couple of things, although I am some 15-20% down from my purchase price, so I might be a little biased.
First of all, I asked myself a couple of times: Will I initiate a buy order at the current price? The answer was always Yes, Which means if I cut loss, I would have sold to another myself!
In fact, Echo was in a similar position share price-wise at the time, they were down from 20s to 7,8c from my memory, and their board would have no capacity developing the mine at all. They got lucky because NST was a large shareholder before the takeover (8% something). So I say, that was a lucky profit. but everyone needs that type of luck once a year.
Hawker Point holds 40%, most at 23c and 17c. 1. They won't accept a 10c takeover offer, and 2. There is no way out for them even the situation go bust. So they are in a black tunnel, the only solution is Don't Look Back, and Keep Going Forward.
I first ask myself: Are resources there?
The answer is I don't know because I am not a geologist. However, given the roll coast history of the company, $200-300 spent. If they didn't have 450koz reserve, they would have a good 250koz reserve. RDT is a classic example to prove the prospective nature of OBM's ground.
I ask myself: Will OBM go bust?
My own answer is: If they were at Spot Gold above $2,600, they would have 2 months ago when the price was at $2,400. The fact that it hasn't taken many shareholder communication initiatives, most likely, they won't need money for now, which is a good sign as well.
I cross check the cost of many low-grade producers, I concluded that even at 1.2-1.3g/t for the open-pit, the AISC will be $2,400 at the bust case, so they are making money, perhaps in a much better position than GCY who has to take an 18% interest rate loan to keep going.
The big question is: Will gold prices go up?
My own answer is: Crypto is a $2Trn market, but Gold is a $20Trn market, so when things get tough, money will look for old century gold and oil, copper and nickel, NOT lithium and crypto, plant-based food or AfterPay etc.
About Lithium
First of all, 98% of current lithium hyped stocks have nothing to show, in fact, as I stated a few days ago, if people go through those stocks financials, most of them haven't spent a dime to dig. So if OBM wanted its share price to go up 30, 40% for a few days, Hawkers would have found the way to do so, as VMC did a week ago, VKA up a bit as well without news.
So my conclusion is if RDT actually spent a fair bit of money on the exploration side, and seriously testing, OBM might have a better chance than most hyped stocks in the past or present, which they actually have a decent chance of development, I don't know.
The circumstance at the moment might be if Hawker pushes the share price, it will only benefit the "willing" sellers.
Why Share Price Hasn't Gone Up?
There maybe be more than just Perennial, but is Hawker Point on the line as well? No, an absolutely No, I say. Even they want, there isn't a market for them. In fact, I dare to say, most of those Perennial's chips would have gone to another institution/broker.
At the end of the day, coming back to Echo, at the time, I say Echo was as dire as OBM, perhaps more so as I remembered, the share price was like a kid slide, gone lower day by day.
As an OBM shareholder, I can't help myself thinking OBM's luck might come. No single person or institution can manipulate the spot gold price, but it's up 1% again. The extra $100-$200 will result in 2, 3, 4 baggers leveraged to OBM.
So finger crossed. Remember, if OBM does fly, it's god, not us, who made it.
OBM Price at posting:
5.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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