Some observations and thoughts on the present debacle:1. To my...

Some observations and thoughts on the present debacle:

1. To my mind Biota's fortunes appear to have always been subject to manipulation by powerful interests that have rarely if ever coincided with those of the retail shareholders.

2. The way i see it there remains one last hope if retail holders are to avoid massive dilution or outright sale at a fire sale price. And that requires mgt to successfully negotiate an agreement to manufacture and supply a Twin Cap zanamivir product for US stockpiling post patent expiry later this year. There ought to be sufficient clinical data demonstrating safe and effective delivery of an appropriate zanamivir formulation from lani Twin caps trials. Any adfitional data required should be the priority now. No need to redemonstrate efficacy of zanamivi. GSKs failure to improve Relenza's delivery system (diskhaler) was a key reason it failed in that market. Success in negotiating a Twin Caps zanamivir product with BARDA would change the fortunes of this company and generate the means to self fund lani ph3.

3.The commentary from Robinson re reasons for BARDA's decision to terminate the lani contract lacks credibility and makes no sense on any level except one. NAIs remain the key plank in any govt stockpiling strategy. Zanamivir and lani have excellent resistance profiles. There are sound molecular reasons for this. Tamiflu has major resistance problems to several medically important strains and is now effectively dead in the water from a stockpiling perspective. There are sound molecular reasons for this.

4. the contradictory statements from barda prior to may 8 suggests
that the decision to terminate the contract was last minute and not intended at the time the stop work order was issued. To me this smacks scenario smacks of last minute intervention by powerful interests.

5. The timing and size of short positions on Biota stock supports 4 above. One or more parties appear to have been very confident of a precipitous fall in the share price as early as mid March and by end April big bets (20x the avge total short positions of the prior 12 months) were in place.

6. My guess is current mgt are straight. Certainly a lot of pressure now being applied via litigation. Perhaps they wouldn't play ball.???

7. Either way, i now expect a low ball take over offer. The technology is not only sound it is rapidly becoming the only game in town...

8. Mgt must keep open the option of suing BARDA for substantial losses. Frankly, if i had any trust in them, i would call in the FBI to investigate...

9. I have emailed mgt outlining my thoughts re a Twin caps zanamivir product and requesting shareholder comms twice. have had no response as yet.