OCC 3.82% 68.0¢ orthocell limited

I did not overlook where you say "I and others on here expect...

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    I did not overlook where you say "I and others on here expect the cash flow gap to narrow" @optimistus - not exactly what you said but never mind. I also apologised if I caused you any offence, despite you calling me obtuse. I, in fact, actually patiently showed you the figures from the last Appendix 4C, that show the "quarterly hole in cash flow" you describe, is in fact ALL R&D.

    Operationally, the business is already cash flow positive on Striate and AU Remplir sales - very modest amounts absolutely, but so is the mkt cap. Come on dude? OCC is making a massive push on getting Remplir FDA approved in hopefully late 2024. We know the comparator study for Remplir (just like OCC performed for Striate for the FDA) finishes in 1Q 24CY (i.e. a month or two), so that R&D expenditure will drop off in the short term quickly - ATI costs R&D on hold whilst they fish for a US partner - so OCC should without any major R&D costs and with sales growth very likely and quickly progress to positive cash flows in less than two years of US sales - how long did PNV take from its first FDA 510K US sales in 2015? Unlike many companies at this stage, OCC has managed its costs well and the largest cost by far, like so much more, is its R&D investment in Remplir, which will have far higher margins than Striate too (likely as soon as 2025, after a possible late 2024/early 2025 FDA approval from Striate timelines). Operationally OCC is already making money on Striate.

    Frankly its starting to sound like a bit of PNV cross promotion. I presume you mean PNV's utterly minted Chairman as "a major backer who is prepared to put their money where their mouth is". Ironically (and indeed luckily on the timing, not the reasoning) I bought PNV just before he stepped in to buy the stock in May 2022 and he certainly needed to as investors utterly lost faith in PNV going cash flow positive back then:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5905/5905341-28dd9c2fc8a42ccb0485cdfb4960d3c5.jpg
    PNV is of course further along commercially than OCC, and a great looking business, but lets be honest, its been anything but a "steady" road of investor confidence in a steady path of sales and path to positive cash flows in PNV. Lots of stop start sales growth since NovoSorb BTM began sales in 2015, following the FDA 510(K) clearance (OCC is only a year into its similarly FDA 510K cleared Striate sales with BioHorizon and co. in the US).


    Last edited by bedger: 23/01/24
 
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