VFM, that analysis was removing the recognition of income from the BH deal. That analysis was purely the reported cash sales reported in the formal aspect of the 4C appendices. It excludes the recognition of BH revenue, interest revenue, R&D rebate income etc.
For example, in its 4Q23 Appendix 4C OCC reported $645K in receipts for the final quarter to bring it to $1,872K in receipts for the year.
However in the same report it expanded on that (ahead of formal earnings) saying it had taken in $5.62 million in cash inflows for the 2023 year, including $1.87M cash receipts, $0.59M in interest and $3.68M from an R&D rebate.
Now in its annual accrual reporting, revenue was actually $1.939M from receipts, revenue from contracts was $2.304M and "other" revenue was $0.930M (and they then apply $3.162M tax benefit - including obvioiusly the $3.68 R&D benefit). That's a far higher effective $8.853 in revenue inflows for 2023 if you treat the tax rebate as an inflow (as they effectively and naturally do in cash flows).
Now take the $2.3M revenue from contracts and $0.93M other revenue from $8.85M and hey presto, you get back to the $5.62M cash inflows for the year.
If you go to the notes, you will see the other revenue was mostly interest (on the cash it holds from the BH deal) at $0.85M. That and the R&D rebate are all reoccurring items that will feature as real cash inflows this year again. Obviously the final revenues for the year are far higher than their reported cash inflows for the year, which are also far higher than the cash receipts too.
So if you look again at the recent reported 4C sales receipts growth trends:
Qtr
4C Receipts
YoY change
QoQ change
Trailing Year
Trailing Year change
1
1QFY21
179
2
2QFY21
218
22%
3
3QFY21
206
-6%
4
4QFY21
325
58%
928
5
1QFY22
356
99%
10%
1105
6
2QFY22
378
73%
6%
1265
7
3QFY22
313
52%
-17%
1372
8
4QFY22
407
25%
30%
1454
57%
9
1QFY23
463
30%
14%
1561
41%
10
2QFY23
500
32%
8%
1683
33%
11
3QFY23
265
-15%
-47%
1635
19%
12
4QFY23
645
58%
143%
1873
29%
13
1QFY24
898
94%
39%
2308
48%
14
2QFY24
896
79%
0%
2704
61%
15
3QFY24
645
143%
-28%
3084
89%
I would expect the quarterly receipts to be far higher than the $0.9M @jb206 hopes for. On recent trends like $1.2 to 1.3M.
Lets be conservative and say $1.2M. if you add that to 1/2/3Q24 you get $3.64M in full year 2024 cash sales receipts (vs the $1.872K for 2023) - a 94% increase in sales receipts. And if you think that unrealistic, the trailing 1 year cash receipt total (i.e. 4Q23 and 1/2/3Q24) is already +89% on the previous year!
So if you were to simply assume say another $0.90M in other revenue (mostly interest that we know coming again), another $3.1M R&D tax rebate and recognised revenue from contracts at $2.3M you'd rather assume a 2024 total effective revenue (including R&D rebate as revenue) of - its actually likely even higher (remember accrued receipts were $1.94M vs $1.87M cash receipts last year) - you'd get $9.94M in total revenue for 2024, not far off my own expectation - a little over $10 million in revenues (again including R&D rebate as an effective revenue).
I get people selling out of OCC for tax reasons this time of year. But from some of the comments made on Hot Copper, I fear many are looking at the last reported quarter as a poor quarter. It was actually their best quarter after 1Q22 in growth, from comparison to the year before - the correct way to analyze, like for like. Even if investors struggle with the mix of accrual and cash accounting OCC (and so many others) report, 3Q FY24 sales receipts were irrefutably +143% on 3Q FY23. Their best quarter yet in growth terms, just as this years total three quarter cash sales to date were +94% on 2023 and indeed the trailing yearly receipts +89%. Those figures, accrual vs cash accounting aside, are simply irrefutably good.
(20min delay)