One of the challenges we have is trying to 'unpack' the numbers to gain any insight into actual performance and into potential trajectories. making a few assumptions I have tried to do this and quite like what I see. Though I hasten to add that these assumptions could be the undoing of my outlook.
The first 3 lines are now historical quarters, and I have taken liberties with my assumptions that Thor would have been A$165k per month or $495 per quarter, with the balance from reported quarterly revenues being Ohm. Note, for the quarter completed and the coming quarter, I assume Thor revenue is just 2 months worth, based on commentary in this quarterly report. Interestingly, that would mean that in the quarter just completed, Ohm Revenue growth in excess of 100%...which may be consistent with an interpretation of DM's statement about more Ohm sites than collectively before.
Projecting ahead, and taking the conservative option of holding Thor revenues constant (apart from the 1/3 reduction in the coming quarter), and playing around with potential Ohm growth rates, I have taken next quarter at a similar 100% (again based on DM comments), and then slowing down on a Q by Q basis to 30%. Given that the success to date appears to be largely on the back of initial efforts of Rizon in the UK, Dicker in Australia, direct sales efforts in the US and possibly some delayed traction in the Caribbean - this means that the potential of the wider IM network has yet kick-in. Will we be able to 'wake the monster'? We will need to, in order to hit these projections.
This type of 'modelling' tells me that break-even by end of CY 2019 is indeed (theoretically, still) possible. And 3 year revenues of $69+ is also still feasible. Of course, the growth projections may take many different profiles and the above numbers do translate to an average quarterly growth of total revenues of around 40%. Though nothing much goes up (or down) in a straight line.
Of course, any upsizing of the SOW revenues from Thor; and/or material royalty revenues for the Thor Smart Connect service; and/or any large Ohm tenders won, can dramatically change this picture. In one direction only.
After mulling over the quarterly and what it may actually mean, I'm more upbeat than I was earlier in the day. All IMO & GLTA.
