While reading an article on the valuation of biotech companies...

While reading an article on the valuation of biotech companies (https://www.baybridgebio.com/drug_valuation.html), I found of interest that, historically speaking, biotech companies which begin a Phase 3 trial for a drug indication have a 56% chance of successful approval by the US FDA for that indication. Of course, this is only considering Kazia's lead indication for glioblastoma.

Therefore, since I also had an interest in determining the probability of success in at least one indication of Kazia's many ongoing trials, I found the following:

Historical chances of successful FDA approval of a drug for an indication beginning a:
Phase 3 trial - 56%
Phase 2 trial - 20%
Phase 1 trial - 12%

In order to calculate the likelihood of success in each one, I basically had to first calculate the likelihood of failing every single one and then subtract that figure from 100%. That will give us the likelihood of success in at least one indication. So the likelihood of failure for an indication entering a Phase 3 trial would be 44% (0.44); a Phase 2 trial, 80% (0.80); a Phase 1 trial, 88% (0.88). Given that Kazia will have 1 Phase 3 trial, 3 Phase 2 trials, and 2 Phase 1 trials for different indications, we get the equation of complete failure of (0.44) x (0.80)³ x (0.88)² equals approximately 0.17, or 17%. Subtracting this from 100%, we get the likelihood of success (100 - 17 = 83). Therefore, the likelihood that Kazia is successfully approved for at least one indication is 83%.