It will be interesting to see the % of informal votes this...

It will be interesting to see the % of informal votes this election…..I have family & friends rusted on to both main parties, me, I’ve voted for most of the parties at some stage in my life so definitely a swinging voter.…some of those on the Labor side have told me they can’t bring themselves to vote for any other party and plan to not fill in the forms.

In this article from 2007 they say 23% effect which Govt. we get….

Possum Comitatus | Jun 28, 2007 2:49PM
If we look at the primary votes of the parties over the last 20 years, it becomes pretty clear that there are a certain amount of voters that support a given party regardless of how that party is behaving. The Coalition for instance never gets below 35 in Newspoll for the primary vote. It has received Newspoll estimated primaries of 35.5 in June 98, 36 in March 01 and 35 in May 07 – but never below 35. This suggests that there is about 35 percentage points of the Coalition primary vote that is rusted on given the ordinary course of politics.
Likewise with the ALP there is a bottom limit of 33% of the primary that they never go below. In April 04 they had 33, January and October 2002 they had 34 and for 8 consecutive months between October 1990 and May 1991 they received 33 to 35.This suggests there is about 33 percentage points that the ALP primary vote that is rusted on given the ordinary course of politics.
(snip)
These minimums combined add up to 77%.This suggests that only 23% of the electorate are swinging voters, and this 23% of the electorate determines governments.
Full article….
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2007/06/28/determining-the-swinging-voter-and-their-behaviour/

I can not understand why people treat politics as if it were a religion.


JMHO