I agree Biota is something of an enigma for long-term holders....

I agree Biota is something of an enigma for long-term holders. Having held for several years, just when I think the company is set to deliver real, sustainable value, something suddenly comes out of left field and the 'bots' are on it like fleas on a rabid dog, wiping out all the gains from the good (great) news and then some.

Very often, Biota has been the cause of its own downfall, with some very poor publicity and communication. I think Peter Cook and Hinton & Associates really need to take a good long, hard look at themselves in the mirror and think about changing careers. A definite vote of no confidence from me, I'm afraid although I believe they are sufficiently well connected to stave off any retail investor challenge.

There is, however, (I believe), a lot of ignorance in the media, (both the general and investing media), about Biota and its products. Consequently, some of the stories printed are either exaggerated or just plain wrong, as in the latest case with the Inavir phase III prophylaxis trial results in Japan. Sadly, neither the ASX who determined this target miss to warrant a 'price sensitive' sticker, nor the reporting press (notably Herald Sun and WSJ) felt it incumbent upon themselves to seek out a company spokesperson to discuss and analyse the announcement before trashing the results.

I agree that Biota is a day-trader's (shorter's) dream stock. There is no doubt in my mind, that the lack of sizeable institutional investors lends itself to panic sales at times of uncertainty and this uncertainty is perpetuated by the fact that the company operates within a volatile industry. This fact in itself is probably the fundamental reason why large investors within Australia are retiscent to sign up for shares on a long-term basis. The key to these institutions' success is stability, or rather stable growth. The opportunity to invest serious wealth in a company which may have sales/profit growth of +150% in one year, followed by -100% the next is simply not worth the extra effort and cost that endless monitoring of the stock would involve.

This is why the company continues to seek financing options beyond our shores and why Piper Jaffray have been engaged. Biota needs to be proactive about seeking long-term investment/financing and it is obvious that the support of the Australian financial market for the Biotech sector (and a few others I could name), is just woeful, whether through ignorance, naivety or because it's just a lot easier to follow the herd in resources/banking etc.

I would love to just put Biota in a bottom drawer and forget about it for a few years. But I know I cannot. I too am looking for that opportunity to trade in and out because I am sure more good news will arrive to boost the price 50% and then over the ensuing period of days or weeks the bots will be back to conquer all and drive the share price back down again. It is very sad, but I feel this will continue for another year or two.

Perhaps a takeover would be best - I think I'd sleep better without Biota in my portfolio, yet at the same time, whilst ever it's there, there is always this hope that one day I will wake up to the news that LANI ROW is finalised, Tamiflu is dead and buried, HRV is a commercial success and institutions are tripping over themselves to get a piece of the action. Ahhh, to sleep perchance to dream. To dream perchance to live.....

Besides, I enjoy reading the threads on this stock, with its many well-researched folks and some good, healthy debate. And I concur with the sentiment that, with Biota, it does feel a little personal.
After all, this is my company goddamn it!!

GLTA.